As of March 6, 2026, here is my assessment of the outcome of the suddenly erupting "Iran War."
《Winners》
１. Israel
２. Saudi Arabia
３. United States
《Losers》
１. Russia
２. China
３. Japan
４. South Korea
５. India
６. Lebanon
７. Iran
《The outcome is still unclear》
Ukraine
At this point, everyone should already understand that Israel is the biggest winner. The question is why the American president was manipulated by the Israeli prime minister. It's unlikely to be simply because "his eldest daughter's husband is Jewish."
The "Iran War" is sure to cause oil prices to soar for the time being. Oil-producing countries will benefit, at least in the short term.
In some cases, Russia could also benefit from rising oil prices and become a "winner" (reap the benefits). While China is not dependent on Russia, India and smaller countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe are dependent on Russian crude oil, which could increase Russia's economic influence and political voice in these countries.
On the other hand, Russia has been dependent on Iran since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. If a pro-American regime were to emerge in Iran, Russia would lose its means of evading Western economic sanctions.
If Russia intends to continue the war against Ukraine without agreeing to the return of territories such as the Crimean Peninsula, a complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, payment of reparations, or the extradition of war criminals, Russia's "loss" of Iran could be a major disadvantage. The United States would likely take advantage of Russia's weaknesses in ceasefire negotiations for the Ukraine war.
However, for the United States (and Japan as well), the greatest strategic "enemy" is not Russia, but China. It is unlikely that Russia, which relies on primary industry, will become a superpower in the future. Even if Russia can manufacture terrifying new weapons that seem like something out of science fiction and intimidate neighboring countries, or operate secretly as an arms dealer, it will be difficult for it to unite anti-Western (anti-democratic) forces and demonstrate political and economic leadership.
From the perspective of the United States (and Japan as well), Russia is likely viewed not as an "enemy" but as a potential partner (for building a China containment network).
It will depend on the extent to which the Iranian government (president and military) and their successor (perhaps Ayatollah Khamenei's son?) can contain the IRGC and enter into negotiations with the United States, but if the IRGC turns all neighboring countries against each other, neighboring countries "join the war," and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, Japan and South Korea will become "defeated nations." Soaring prices will become unstoppable.
This could have an impact on the administration of Prime Minister Takaichi, who enjoys an astonishingly high approval rating. In some cases, it is not impossible that a political situation that pleases the Chinese government could emerge.
The timing of Israel and the United States' attack on Iran was opportune. Currently, neither Russia nor China can afford to provide military support to Iran, and they are preoccupied with their own affairs. Furthermore, because Iran (the Revolutionary Guard Corps) is allegedly responsible for the deaths of thousands of ordinary people who participated in anti-government demonstrations, the United States can raise the banner of justice and capitalize on the anti-government sentiment (anti-IRGC) among Iranian citizens.
If the United States were to weaken or neutralize the IRGC and successfully establish a pro-American regime in Iran (regime change), it could be said to have emerged victorious. However, conversely, if Iran (the Revolutionary Guard Corps) puts up a stronger-than-expected resistance, the Republican Party could suffer a defeat in the US midterm elections this fall. The president's approval rating could also fall further.
India, which relies on Russian crude oil, would be in a difficult position if Russia were to raise oil prices (using them as a bargaining chip to gain war support).
Lebanon's use of Hezbollah to confront Israel became the cause of its involvement in the "Iran War." The Lebanese people likely view Israel's actions as unreasonable barbarism, as they were subjected to a sudden, unilateral attack by Israel and their civilians were massacred. However, Israel is obsessed with the idea that it "cannot sleep peacefully" unless it exerts coercive control over the entire Middle East region through overwhelming military power, and believes it is waging a "just" war against potential terrorist groups.
I predict that Iran will successfully navigate this war, minimizing the losses of its "defeat" while maintaining the core of its political system. Iran must be aware that democratic camps exhibit political fragility in a "long-term war" (as was the case with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Japan after the outbreak of the Ukraine War). Iran will likely seek to engage in a protracted war (a war of attrition) while gradually releasing its war resources, and wait for an opportunity to negotiate with the United States. If the "Iran War" were to drag on, soaring prices, economic turmoil, and tax increases could alienate the public (leading to falling approval ratings) in America's allies, leading to successive changes in government. Iran will likely be aiming for this.
If that happens, Iran's "defeat" may not be as severe.
The outcome of the Ukraine war is unclear. If Iran becomes more pro-American, it would deal a blow to Russia. However, as mentioned above, if Iran (the Revolutionary Guard Corps) persists and the war is prolonged, democratic governments are likely to come under pressure from their citizens due to factors such as soaring prices. When pressure to "stop supporting another country's war when we're going through such difficult times" is expressed in the form of approval ratings, democratic governments become weak.
At present, it is difficult to judge how a war with Iran will affect Ukraine.
The above "assessment" is made not from the perspective of right or wrong, but from the realities of international politics.
Personally, I do not consider Israel's actions to be "just." Not to mention the "accidental bombing" of an Iranian girls' elementary school, massacring nearly 200 female students and teachers, should be considered a war crime. I believe the FBI should investigate this case against all those involved, including CIA operatives. (I believe this can be treated as a murder case, rather than a "violation of international law." In Japanese criminal law theory, "mistake of objectivity" is said to not negate intent.)
However, no matter what I say, it may not resonate with people who say, "International law has nothing to do with me," or "We live in a world ruled by force."
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