Large castles from Japan's Sengoku period (not mountain castles, but flat castles built on flat land) were surrounded by two moats (Hori): an outer moat (Sotobori) and an inner moat (Uchibori). A moat is an artificially constructed pool of water, similar to a pond or swamp.
If the outer moat were filled in, it could pose a serious security risk to the castle's main enclosure (Honmaru).
The most famous example in Japanese history is the Winter Siege of Osaka. Due to a ploy by Tokugawa Ieyasu, Toyotomi Hideyori filled in the outer moat of Osaka Castle. This later forced a major change in the security policy of Osaka Castle (the Toyotomi clan), placing them at a severe disadvantage (Summer Siege of Osaka).
In modern international security strategies, the outer moat is the economy, while military power has an aspect of the inner moat.
The United States is implementing a strategy to fill in China's outer moat, using military force to gradually contain China's economy and starve it out.
Both the Venezuelan "drug" issue and the Iranian "uranium enrichment" issue can be seen as mere pretexts for the United States.
The problem would be if Iran were to blockade the northern Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil shipments from Iran's neighboring countries. This would likely harm not only China, but the entire East Asia region.
A US website has published a document quantifying the "world's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz." An excerpt is included below.
https://energynewsbeat.co/hormuz-dependency-by-country-a-critical-energy-chokepoint-under-scrutiny/
The ranking of key countries' import dependencies on oil transiting Hormuz (based on 2024-2025 data, as percentages of total crude oil imports) is as follows:
Japan: 75%
South Korea: 60%
India: 50%
China: 45-50%
European countries (this article is unclear whether this refers to EU member states (including Turkey), Western European countries, or all of Europe): 10-20% (varies by country)
United States: 7-8%
Four countries (Japan, India, China, and South Korea) account for 75% of Hormuz oil flows.
The dependency on Hormuz LNG is as follows:
China: 25-30%
India: 20-25%
South Korea: 15-20%
Japan: 10-15%
Europe: Approximately 10%
United States: "Negligible" and "Minimal imports from MEG."
Incidentally, this article makes the following points about the United States:
「United States: Minimal impact overall, with only 2% of consumption tied to Hormuz.」
In today's world, energy policies and transportation methods have become diversified, so it may be difficult to fully understand the country's energy dependence on the Middle East based on the figures from this single source. However, it is clear that Japan's dependence on the Middle East is exceptionally high among major countries.
Furthermore, according to the above statistics, Japan, China, India, and South Korea alone account for 75% of the crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although not mentioned in the source, the Israeli economy is not dependent on primary or secondary industries and enjoys a geographical advantage, so a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely not be of much concern to Israel.
In addition, it is Japanese companies that drive the Chinese economy. Japanese companies make money by exporting (reimporting) products manufactured in China to Japan or selling them to other countries such as the United States. While the results of these economic activities are reflected as "domestic" in the gross domestic product figures, which can be deceptive (China's GDP is roughly four times that of Japan, but this does not mean that China has an economic power four times that of Japan), the Chinese and Japanese economies are inextricably linked.
As such, Japan's 75% dependence and China's 50% dependence could be a double whammy for the Japanese economy.
From the Trump administration's perspective, this is a case of "killing five birds with one stone" (meaning that one stone can shoot down five birds). A single stone thrown with "Epic Fury" can knock down five large birds.
In short, Japan has failed in its economic security policy. As the saying goes, "expanding your basket" is the basis of security policy. "Expanding your basket" means diversifying. "Diversification" refers not only to the number of countries with which we export and import, but also to transportation methods and energy sources.
It's too late now to lament the fact that we shut down all of Japan's nuclear power plants, opposed wind power generation (I also oppose wind power generation on land, but not to building it at sea (as long as it doesn't affect fisheries)), and opposed solar power generation (since Japan would have to import solar panels from China, we would indirectly become dependent on China for our energy supply).
We should have diversified our sources of rare earth supplies and crude oil transportation routes much sooner.
Japan had no concept of economic security and was only concerned with making money in the moment. We didn't anticipate the worst-case scenario.
We will soon pay the price for that.
“一石五鸟” 〜〜东亚卷入特朗普政府的中国遏制战略
日本战国时代的大型城堡（并非山地城堡，而是建于平地上的城堡）通常被两道护城河环绕：外护城河和内护城河。“护城河”是指人工建造的类似池塘或沼泽的水池。
填平“外护城河”会对城堡的“本丸”（主城）构成严重的安全威胁。
日本历史上最著名的例子是大阪冬围。由于德川家康的计谋，丰臣秀赖填平了大阪城的外护城河。这迫使大阪城（丰臣氏）的安保策略发生重大改变，使其处于极其不利的境地。
在现代国际安全战略中，“外护城河”指的是经济，“军事实力”则指的是“内护城河”。
美国正在实施一项旨在填平中国“外护城河”的战略，并动用武力逐步遏制中国经济，如同扼杀其于水火之中。
委内瑞拉的“毒品”问题和伊朗的“铀浓缩”问题，不过是美国的借口罢了。
问题在于，如果伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡北岸，阻止石油从邻国运输，那么受损的不仅是中国，整个东亚地区都可能处于不利地位。
一家美国网站发布了量化“世界对霍尔木兹海峡依赖程度”的数据。以下摘录部分内容。
https://energynewsbeat.co/hormuz-dependency-by-country-a-critical-energy-chokepoint-under-scrutiny/
主要国家对途经霍尔木兹海峡的石油进口依赖度（基于2024-2025年数据，以原油进口总量的百分比表示）如下：
日本：75%
韩国：60%
印度：50%
中国：45-50%
欧洲国家（本文未明确指出是指欧盟成员国（包括土耳其）、西欧国家还是整个欧洲）：10-20%（因国家而异）
美国：7-8%
四个国家（日本、印度、中国和韩国）占霍尔木兹海峡石油流量的75%。
对天然气进口（霍尔木兹液化天然气）的依赖程度如下：
中国：25-30%
印度：20-25%
韩国：15-20%
日本：10-15%
欧洲：约10%
美国：“可忽略不计”和“从中东进口量极少”。
顺便一提，这篇文章指出美国的情况如下：
「美国：总体影响极小，仅有2%的消费量与霍尔木兹液化天然气相关。」
鉴于当今能源政策和运输方式的多元化，仅凭这一单一来源的数据可能难以全面了解日本对中东的能源依赖程度。然而，显而易见的是，在世界主要国家中，日本对中东的能源依赖程度异常高。
此外，仅日本、中国、印度和韩国就占霍尔木兹海峡原油运输量的75%。
虽然上述文件中未提及，但以色列经济并不依赖于第一产业或第二产业，且拥有地理优势，因此霍尔木兹海峡的封锁可能不会对以色列造成特别大的影响。
此外，推动中国经济发展的是日本企业。日本企业通过将中国制造的产品出口（再进口）到日本或销往美国等其他国家来获利。就“国内生产总值”（GDP）而言，这些经济活动的成果在中国被计入“国内”数据，这可能导致一些误导性数据（中国的GDP约为日本的四倍，但这并不意味着中国的经济实力是日本的四倍）。然而，可以说日中两国经济“一蓮托生”(＝密不可分）。
因此，日本７５%的对外依存度和中国５０%的对外依存度都可能对日本经济造成双重打击。
从特朗普政府的角度来看，这可以看作是“一石五鸟”。一颗“史诗狂怒”投下的石头，击落了五只大鸟。
简而言之，日本的经济安全政策失败了。正如人们常说的，“扩大经济篮子”是安全政策的基础。“扩大经济篮子”意味着多元化。“多元化”不仅包括进出口伙伴的数量，还包括运输方式和能源来源。
现在后悔关闭日本所有核电站、反对风力发电（我本人反对陆上风力发电，但我不反对海上风力发电（只要不影响渔业））以及反对太阳能发电（这意味着从中国进口太阳能电池板，从而间接使日本的能源供应依赖于中国）已经太晚了。
日本本应更早实现稀土供应来源和原油运输路线的多元化。当时的日本对经济安全毫无概念，只顾着在任何情况下赚钱，完全没有预料到最坏的情况。
未来，我们将为此付出沉重的代价。
