To date, I have not seen any articles in major media outlets, including newspapers, news agencies, and television stations in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, mainland China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan, that point out the historical causality between the Osaka-Kansai Expo (hereinafter referred to as "Expo 2025") and the Ukraine War.
Of course, I am not the only one who has checked all the news articles and television reports from media outlets around the world; I only come across a small portion of them in my personal life, so it may have already been pointed out somewhere. However, since I have not yet come across any, I would like to point it out here.
It's not that big of a deal.
On November 23, 2018, at the 164th General Assembly of the BIE, a vote was held to decide the host country for the 2025 International Registered Exhibition (or World Exhibition, or World Expos). It was effectively a one-on-one battle between Osaka and Yekaterinburg (Russia), with Osaka winning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expo_2025).
If Russia had won, the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 might not have taken place.
This is because Russia has never hosted a registered exhibition (a "general exhibition" under the old treaty). Russia is very determined to host a registered exhibition.
In fact, Russia took Dubai to a runoff vote at the BIE General Assembly held on November 27, 2013.
Russia was also scheduled to run for the 173rd BIE General Assembly held on November 28, 2023 (though it withdrew its candidacy, prioritizing the war in Ukraine).
Major developed countries such as the UK, France, the US, Italy, Germany and Japan have hosted expositions many times in the past (Osaka-Kansai Expo will be Japan's sixth, with three registered expositions (formerly known as general expositions) and three special expositions (now recognized expositions)), so it may be difficult to understand why they are hosting an exposition, but for Russia, hosting an exposition is a long-cherished dream and could be a golden opportunity to boost national prestige. It would also be an opportunity for the Russian president to impress upon the Russian people that he is a wise, powerful and absolute leader who will maximize the benefits for the Russian people and lead Russia back to becoming a superpower (remember "Putin's Olympics").
I cannot imagine what kind of event "Putin's Expo" will be, but that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing. To varying degrees, expositions, like the Olympics and the soccer World Cup, are being used to boost national prestige, especially outside developed countries, and in a sense, they are being used to alleviate (potential) international discontent. It can also be said to function as a legal institutional device for disgruntled elements to let off steam.
We still remember the time when the Russian president deliberately waited for the Beijing Winter Olympics, held in a friendly country, to close before launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This was an unprecedented way for a powerful nation to launch a unilateral, all-out war of aggression against a weak neighbor, timed to coincide with the end of a sporting event being held in a third country.
It is unclear whether the Russian president feels he has owed the Chinese president a favor, but China must be grateful.
China, too, has had a string of major national events planned, including the 2008 Summer Olympics, the 2010 Shanghai Expo (a registered Expo), and the 2022 Winter Olympics, so there was no opportunity to invade Taiwan. Conversely, it can be seen that by gifting China with these events, it has curbed any unrest.
countries that achieves outstanding economic development while its politics, administration, judiciary, and education remain largely unchanged inevitably faces structural internal contradictions and widens the gap between rich and poor.
In such countries where a dictatorial regime is unable to even vent political anger, it becomes necessary to provide a compensatory sense of satisfaction to members of a social class who are dissatisfied, resentful, jealous, and feel unfair by helping them to identify with a "strong and great homeland."
Experts from developed countries may see this satisfaction as a way for less oppressive social classes to be deceived by the illusions spread by authoritarian rulers and used for political mobilization. However, in today's world, where the majority of people still live with the nation-state as the core of their political identity, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the subjective satisfaction that comes from identifying with the glory of the nation increases social inclusion and brings about political stability. Rather, it is necessary for leaders of such countries to provide legitimate and productive means of promoting national prestige. It can also be said that providing opportunities for such means is desirable for international peace.
In countries like those mentioned above, even if their economies have developed rapidly and they have achieved a mass consumption society similar to that of Western countries, other aspects of their lives are not so easily changed; in fact, they often end up with a time bomb inside their own country.
Now that so many Ukrainian citizens have been brutally murdered, their homeland has been destroyed, and millions have been forced to flee their homeland and become refugees, it is pointless to talk about "what ifs," but if Russia had won the Expo in 2020 or 2025 and "Putin's Expo" had been realized, there is a chance that the invasion of Ukraine might not have taken place.
To the Ukrainian people enduring the flames of war, Expo 2025 was nothing more than a "useless, internationally insignificant, self-indulgent World's Fair" being held on the other side of the world, but if it had been held in Russia, the fate of the Ukrainian people might have been different.
That's all.
